Thursday, November 28, 2019
A reform is a social movement aimed at making gradual changes in the society. Slavery began as a form of punishing criminals in the society and recovering debts. The two main reforms that Americans struggled for were racial justice and gender equality.Advertising We will write a custom essay sample on Reform-womenÃ¢â¬â¢s rights and slavery specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More The movement began in 1830s in the countryside and towns of the north. The people involved came from rich and religious families. They believed that slavery was because of injustice and unfair treatment of human beings. The colonizers felt that the movement was threatening their business and status in the society and began to ridicule and attack the families of the abolitionists. Nevertheless, the abolitionists did not loose hope. For example, William Lloyd Garrison, a Massachusetts printer and editor, struggled to liberate slavery by publishing the first issue of The Liberator, which formed the foundation of women right in New England. He also formed the New England anti-slavery society to strengthen the movement. This movement was formed later in America in which unified west, New York and New England. Later 1830 and 40s, the movement became stronger and began to gain support from many people. Unfortunately, the movement collapsed due to individual differences. Then later, women coming from prominent families began their movement on antislavery and equality of women. Writers supported the abolitionist women by producing children books, hymns, and stories that encouraged the younger generation to prepare to fight for their rights and freedom. The women in the abolitionist group started to spread the need for women to speak publicly about their rights. Sarah and Grimke became the first women lecturers. They began to write and speak on women rights to condemn the message from the General Association of Massachusetts about forbidding women from speaking in public. In 1870s, women were excluded in the right to vote during the amendments of the constitution. They continued to struggle but it took 50 years to be included in the amendments.Advertising Looking for essay on history? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Change in the attitude of slavery, led to its decline in 1800s. The slaves began to seek for education, jobs and establish churches since were forbidden from interacting with the white people. This helped them improve their living standards and awareness of their capabilities. Samuel Cornish and John Russworn became editors. They started the first black newspaper, Freedom Journal in 1827. The slaves began to cause threat, the country representatives decided to return some of the slaves to their homeland. Most of the slaves felt that United States was their new home. They became encouraged to put more efforts that resulted to many succeeding. They improved th eir status in the society and many white people began appreciating them as people with rights. Today slavery is illegal in all countries except in Africa, Asia, and South America. The incidences are punishable by law hence it is in secret. Today women have acquired personal freedom and can involve themselves in any kind of job in the society. Women deserved to gain equal rights since they suffered a lot in the hands of the colonizers. Women worked in the fields alongside men but did not rest as men since they performed all the household chores and weaving before going to bed. Those who worked as house slaves had to stand through out when their masters are in the house, are starved, and forbidden from visiting their husbands. Pregnant women beatings increasing the chances of loosing their babies and when they gave birth, their children sold as slaves. Conclusion Social activists play the role of identifying and enforcing reforms. Slavery began to benefit the white people in farming, to punish the criminals in the society and to recover debts but it ended up going against the human rights. Law without mercy should punish anybody involved in this business today. This essay on Reform-womenÃ¢â¬â¢s rights and slavery was written and submitted by user Maci Munoz to help you with your own studies. You are free to use it for research and reference purposes in order to write your own paper; however, you must cite it accordingly. You can donate your paper here.
Sunday, November 24, 2019
Comparison of Two Religions essayEssay Writing Service Comparison of Two Religions essay Comparison of Two Religions essayBuddhism and Hinduism have common roots. Both religions originated in India, and they are genetically related. However, Buddhism has absorbed the traditions of many peoples of the East during the long history of its formation, and nowadays it is considered not just a religion but a doctrine of enlightenment. Thus, the main aim of the assignment is to compare two religions such as Buddhism and Hinduism on the base of specific criteria.Observing geographical origin of each religion, it is possible to note that the area of Ã¢â¬â¹Ã¢â¬â¹the emergence and spread of Hinduism is Indian subcontinent, and most people professing this religion live in the Republic of India. Smelcer (2013) said that Buddhism, in its turn, also has developed in India in the context of Indian philosophy and religion, but Buddhism has spread all over the world and members of this religion can be found in any country. Thus, Buddhism is a monotheistic religion, philosophical doctri ne of spiritual awakening, the teaching of the Enlightened One. Hinduism is a polytheistic ancient Vedic religion, the set of traditions and schools of thought emerged and spread across the Indian subcontinent.Observing some practices of these two religions, it becomes obvious that according to Hindu teachings, the whole world is samsara, an endless series of rebirths. World is an illusion. But there exists a real world, which is ruled by the Absolute beyond samsara. According to Bonin (2012), all attention in Buddhism is focused on contemplation of the own spirit. Hinduism, in its turn, is the religion of the soul, tending to the Absolute, while Buddhism rejects God and the soul. This is a kind of hidden atheism.The ultimate goal of personality in Hinduism is to break the karmic chain of rebirths, to break out of samsara and connect with the Absolute. It is possible to do this only through austerity, self-denial and psychological training. The basic idea of Buddhism is the passing of life by the middle way between asceticism and pleasure as the two extremes. The ultimate goal of by the middle way is Nirvana the highest state of grace.In Hinduism, the amount of good and bad deeds in a previous rebirth is called karma. Belonging to a particular caste is also subjected to karma, and nobody can dispute with the destiny. Some calls for social equality or social justice sound strange for Hinduism, and representatives of the higher caste of priests have the best chances to break out of samsara. Buddhism professes the principle of equality in opportunities to grasp the supreme grace. It does not favor caste distribution of the society, focusing solely on the individual characteristics of the person.In such a way, it can be mentioned that Hinduism is the national religion of the Indians. This religion is unthinkable without India. Buddhism is the non-national religion. It is widely practiced by the people with very different cultural traditions. Buddhism is different ly practiced in different parts of the world in its specific details, but it has the same organization everywhere. For instance, monastic organization of Buddhism distinguishes this religion from Hinduism that is disparate in its organization. Buddhists have their cultural and educational centers, their own ideology and traditions. Moreover, according to Viswanathan (2014), Buddhism, preaching social and political indifference, in practice, made Ã¢â¬â¹Ã¢â¬â¹a huge contribution to the organization of society, awareness of its ethno-political values, while such concepts as society, politics and history are diametrically far for the followers of Hinduism. So, it can be said that Hinduism is indifferent and inaccessible for changes, while Buddhism is more dynamic and open for refreshing.In addition, dwelling on the fact how these two religions influence the daily life of people practicing them, there is a significant difference between two religions, while both Hinduism and Buddhism emphasize different activities, leading to the release of the problems and difficulties. In Hinduism, the main emphasis is made on the external physical aspects and technologies, for example, various asanas in hatha yoga; classic Hinduism uses purification by bathing in the Ganges, as well as special diet, while in daily life Hinduism emphasizes the kinship of man with nature, with all the animals, and this makes it impossible to demonstrate hostile or even indifferent attitude to the animals with which man forms a unity.In Buddhism, a great importance is attached not to external but to internal techniques acting on the mind and heart. This is illustrated by such expressions as Ã¢â¬Å"the development of a good heart,Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"development of wisdom for seeing reality,Ã¢â¬ etc. Moreover, Buddhism has consistently adhered to the principle of ahimsa, non-violence towards other beings. However, Buddhism spread widely outside India: Japan, China, Burma, Tibet, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and in these countries, it has undergone some changes. Buddhism, as it is now practiced in India, allows some departure from the principle of ahimsa and vegetarianism, and it has led to the fact that Buddhism lost the role of religion to protect animals from cruelty in these countries. For example, in Japan, although it is consumed little meat, people widely use fish in food. Only in monasteries where Zen Buddhism is practicing, vegetarianism and other primordial principles of Buddhism are strictly observed.To sum up, we have compared Buddhism and Hinduism in accordance with specific criteria, and found that each religion has not only its specific characteristics but also differently influence the life of people who are practicing these religions.
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Analysis of Unconscious Bias - Essay Example Ã There were five specifically enumerated classifications of biases noted: pattern-recognition, action-oriented, stability, interest, and social biases that decision-makers tend to disregard and subconsciously continue to infiltrate major decision-making processes. The authors suggested ways and mean counter these five biases through taking various points of views and perspectives; taking uncertainties into account; enhancing awareness by thinking beyond the box; adopting broader interests; and by encouraging corporate debate (Lovallo and Sibony, 2010). Likewise, four steps in adopting behavioral strategies were proffered to improve the quality of decision making after incorporating the suggested ways to counter biases in the organizations. In the video, Ã¢â¬Å"A Class DividedÃ¢â¬ , a grade three teacher, Jane Elliot, taught her students the crucial lesson on discrimination through an effective method of making them feel discriminated and prejudiced in terms of the color of thei r eyes. The results of group activities of Ã¢â¬ËdiscriminatedÃ¢â¬â¢ children were surprisingly shown as generating lower grades as their morale and perception of status were diminished. In contemporary organizations, these biases still exist in various styles and form: through gender discrimination, ranks within the organizational hierarchies, and even in the race. In a study conducted by Lyons & McArthur entitled Gender's unspoken role in leadership evaluations (gender discrimination and leadership qualities, the systemic bias Ã¢â¬Å"illustrates the challenges that women face in accommodating themselves to male-defined executive roles and suggests how corporate leaders--men in particular--can make these detrimental effects discussable within their own executive suitesÃ¢â¬ (Lyons & McArthur, 2007, 1). This kind of bias could fall under the interest and social biases discussed by Lovallo and Sibony (2010) as there continue to pervade organizations in terms of confining to the respective interests of male-dominated leaders in organizations, deep-rooted in human tendencies and manifested in socials structures globally. Ã
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Reflective Analysis - Essay Example I succeeded in hanging the infusion and had it working properly with no hitches or messes. When I was preparing to leave the patientÃ¢â¬â¢s bedside, my instructor asked if I had forgotten something. I panicked silently in my head and mentally reenacted all the steps 4 more times. I paused before answering in the negative. The instructor asked me for a second time, and again I replied in the negative. The dialogue was repeated 2 more times before the patient finally turned to me and politely (and jokingly) quipped , Ã¢â¬Å"SheÃ¢â¬â¢s obviously trying to tell you somethingÃ¢â¬ . I still couldnÃ¢â¬â¢t put my finger on it. My instructor said, Ã¢â¬Å"Well, great work on the IV, but if Mr. Green wants to get out of bed to use the restroom or anything else she will have to jump (and maybe fall).Ã¢â¬ I stared at the bed, and it was still at waist-height! I had become so engrossed in my task that I forgot that the instructor had raised his bed for the IV troubleshoot. I knew that something was amiss somewhere, but the dots wouldnÃ¢â¬â¢t connect. My instructor was not the type that corrected students just for the sake, so I immediately felt that I had made a mistake somewhere. The issue at hand was ethical because it was covered in the nursing handbook/code of ethics. As such, I had broken an ethical rule which required that a patientÃ¢â¬â¢s bed be lowered to its lowest or most appropriate setting. My values and beliefs in relation to this event are all related to my practice as a nurse. I believe that a nurse must observe the nursing code of ethics at all times. It is the guiding principle of the practice. The issue was a very serious one because it is clearly stipulated in the nursing code of ethics that the nurse must always make the patient feel safe and ensure the patientÃ¢â¬â¢s safety by doing things like lowering and raising the bed height as is required. In my case, the bed height had been temporarily raised by the instructor and I
Monday, November 18, 2019
1950's sitcom - Essay Example In the 1950s, America experienced real effects of post wars and one such effect was the speedy economic growth. The effects emerged as a result of the wars that they were involved in and the wars included the cold war and World War 2. The war involved the United States nations and the Soviet Union. The wars were as a result of the nations struggling to gain power and be on the leading. These two wars, through unfolding events deteriorated, that is, after World War 2, America started experiencing a remarkable economic expansion (May, 2008). The level of employment went up. Before, women were major providers for their homes; this is because their partners left to fight for the nations. The post war period brought about the reoccurrence of prosperity and the American states, formerly known as the United States of American, acquired a position of the wealthiest nation in the world. The economic growth of the United States was due to several outnumbered sources. The Americans attained mor tgages in their new suburbs, they got new cars and they used their leisure and talents to the maximum. Due to this, the population in several districts in the United States increased incredibly. Rise in the United States economy after the post war boom led to discrimination, segregation and conflicts to the non-whites. The non-whites were discriminated in job positions, education and housing. The rights that were being granted to the white Americans were denied to them (May, 2008). The white Americans had privileges, they included; voting rights, immigration, getting loans and land acquisition. This discrimination made the Africans to be treated as slaves. The immigrants to the America suffered xenophobic segregations and ethnicity. This discrimination and racism was beyond comprehension, furthermore, no one was in authority to forward their grievances.
Friday, November 15, 2019
Impact Of Climate Change On Mauritius Environmental Sciences Essay Mauritius is a small island in the Indian Ocean, which forms part of the Mascarene Islands. It is very famous as a beautiful tourist destination. The local climate is tropical, modified by southeast trade winds; there is a warm, dry winter from the month of May to November and a hot, wet, and humid summer from November to May. There are Anti-cyclones which affect the country during May to September and Cyclones affect the country during November to April. Today, the tourism industry is the first pillar of the Mauritian economy. In brief, Mauritius had about 18,000 visitors in 1970. Between 1985 and 2000 the size of its tourism sector, measured by the increase in tourist arrivals, grew by approximately 340%. Tourist arrivals in 2004 were almost 720,000. Tourist arrivals kept increasing every year, in years 2009 and 2010 we noticed a decrease in tourists arrivals due to the World financial crisis, H1N1, price and other factors. The Tourism industry is developing very rapidly and the go vernment is expecting 2 million tourists in year 2015. The tourism created 30,000 full time job equivalents in 2000 and is creating more direct and indirect jobs with new hotels, luxury villas and tourist attractions. According to forecasts Mauritius is expecting 920, 000 tourists in 2010 which represents an increase of 5.6 percent over the figure of 871, 356 in 2009. Tourist arrivals are forecast to be around 950,000, representing an increase of 3.3 percent over 2010 (Central Statistic Office). According to the Bank of Mauritius, tourism receipts for 2011 should be about 41 billion, representing an increase of 5.1 percent over 2010. Climate Change Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC, 2007). Climate change is mainly caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, fossil fuels, deforestation, methane, pollution, waste of energies and by other factors. Climate change has several negative impacts such as a rise in temperature, rise in sea level, beach erosion, floods, storm surge, droughts, sun burn, melting of glaciers, extinction of species, and among others. Climate scientists are very certain that the Earths climate will change at an unprecedented rate over the 21st century (Houghton et al., 2001). Researches which were made on climate change mention that Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between year 1970 and 2004. The Global mean sea level is likely to rise by 15 to 95 centimetres by 2100. Global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 1Ã °C over the last 100 years. The years at the end of the nineties were the warmest over the last centuries; hence global temperatu re will increase in the future. All the above mentioned impacts represent a threat to the tourism industry and other sub industries. Mauritius and Climate Change The impacts of climate variability and extreme weather events are becoming a concern to the Republic of Mauritius. Though the GHG emission of Mauritius is insignificant, warming of the climate and its effects on the natural and ecological system are inevitable and already obvious. Analyses of temperature recorded at Mauritius and its outer islands show a distinct warming trend. Average temperature at all stations is increasing at the rate of 0.15 Ãâ¹Ã ¡C per decade and has risen by 0.74 1.2 Ãâ¹Ã ¡C when compared to the 1961-90 long term mean. At some urban stations the temperature has risen by even greater amounts. Sea levels in the southwest Indian Ocean based on reconstructed tide gauge data and Topex/Poseiden altimeter for the period 1950-2001 shows a rise of around 1.5 mm/yr at Port Louis which is the capital city of Mauritius (Church, et al., 2006). Analysis of Port Louis data for the period 1987-2007 gives a mean rise of 2.1 mm/yr for the last 10 years. Warming of the at mosphere has also impacted the hydrologic cycle over the southwest Indian Ocean. Long-term time series of rainfall amount over the past century (1905 to 2007) show a falling trend in annual rainfall over Mauritius. In fact the average rate of decrease per decade is around 57 mm. The overall decrease during the last ten years is about 8% when compared to the 1950s. There are other impacts which have been observed concerning climate in Mauritius, there is a lengthening of the intermediate dry season, the period of winter and summer has changed compared to previous years. There is a shift in the start of the summer rains which cause a problem to the increasing demand of water by sectors such as agriculture, tourism, industrial and domestic. Hence the number of consecutive dry days is increasing and the number of rainy days is decreasing. Even though there is a decrease in the number of rainy days, heavy rain falls leading to floods is being observed during the summer months of February and March. The concept of sustainable island is clearly defined by the Maurice Ile Durable programme which was presented in the parliament in June 2008. Since then, both public and private sector organisations are putting effort to develop in a sustainable way. As the tourism industry in vulnerable to climate change, hotels and other tourism businesses are trying to implement new strategies in order to mitigate climate change. Mauritius is known for its 3 s, that is the Sun, Sea and Sand. It is a great concern for the stakeholders of the tourism industry in order to preserve the 3 s. Why this research? The world is facing a major challenge. Climate change has increased the frequency, intensity and severity of disasters such as floods, droughts, landslides, famine, windstorms, and epidemics (Oxfam, 2008, AU, 2005). We cannot keep on using fossil fuels the way we do today. Scientists have laid out the risks we face and it has become clearer than ever that now is the time to take serious action on climate change. If we do not act today, the opportunity will not only slip out of our hands but it will also become much more costly to carry out the necessary low-carbon transition in the future. It is important for Mauritius to start acting now for the future generations, as Mauritius is dependent on the Tourism industry it is clear that both private and public organizations must cater for the landscape, environment, cultures, traditions, heritages and attractions to encourage tourists to keep choosing Mauritius as their holiday destination. What impact will climate change have on tourism? This can be through two means: directly through the changed climate and indirectly through the environmental changes brought about by climate change. In both cases, these impacts will occur at the origin country or region and at the destination country. This study is going to see the perception of tourism professionals on climate change, their knowledge on climate change, and their mitigation and adaptation measures. Moreover this study is going to conclude about how can climate change affects the tourism industry of Mauritius, and finally draw recommendations on how to reduce a change in climate and reduce impacts on the environment. As a result we will be able to develop in a more sustainable way without harming the nature of our island. Aims and Objectives of the study This study is designed to see the level of knowledge of tourism professionals concerning climate change and to what extent those managers think that their business is vulnerable to climate change. Moreover the questionnaire is going to collect data such as the perception of managers about the adaptation measures and about the threats that climate change represent to Mauritius. Purpose of this study The purpose of this project is to establish sufficient knowledge of climate change related changes in the research area to motivate the stakeholders to act now for the sustainability of the tourism industry of Mauritius. Thus it builds a bridge from scientific research activity to practical action. A fundamental assumption motivating this research is that with a joint, planned and coordinated commitment from the industry, the adverse social, environment and economic effects of these changes could be mitigated and rather turned positive. Methodology To our knowledge, this study is going to see the knowledge and actions of managers in the tourism industry concerning Climate Change. A sample of Tourism Managers was used for this study. The total survey sample consists of 30 managers, which were selected at random, in hotels, travel agencies, airlines, tourist attractions sites, diving centres and among others. A pre-test of the survey instrument was conducted and slight modifications were made to improve the clarity of some questions. The survey was conducted in English. Literature review There are a variety of potential impacts of climate change. A number of reviews have investigated these effects, including the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), 2001; Bigio, 2003; McEvoy, 2007; Wilby, 2007, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 2007b; and Huq et al, 2007, and generally identify the most important effects of climate change as: Effects of sea level rise on coastal regions (including the effects of storm surges); Effects on health (heat and cold related mortality, food and water borne disease, vector borne disease) arising from higher average temperatures and/or extreme events; Infrastructure damage from extremes (wind storms and including storm surges, floods from heavy precipitation events, heat extremes, droughts); Effects on tourism, and cultural heritage; Effects on urban biodiversity; Effects on energy use (heating and cooling, energy for water); Effects on water availability and resources; Ancillary effects on air pollution. The IPCC TAR (2001) provided a comprehensive review of the physical climate impacts on cities, using the evidence available at that time. It concluded that: Climate change is more likely to have important impacts on the development of settlements in resource-dependent regions or coastal or riverine locationsU. Most of the concerns were of possible negative impacts on development (e.g., on the comparative advantage of a settlement for economic growth compared with other locations), although impacts on some areas were considered likely to be positive. The recently published IPCC 4th Assessment WG II Report (Parry et al [IPCC], 2007d and Chapter 7 on industry, settlements and society Wilbanks, et al 2007) provides an update, based on more recent evidence, but reinforces the earlier findings. Additionally, it addresses vulnerability more explicitly, places climate change directly in the context of socio-economic change and recognises the potential for adaptation. The WG2 summary for policy makers (IPCC, 2007b) concludes that Costs and benefits of climate change for industry, settlement, and society will vary widely by location and scale. In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be more negative the larger the change in climate. And Where extreme weather events become more intense and/or more frequent, the economic and social costs of those events will increase, and these increases will be substantial in the areas most directly affected. Climate change impacts spread from directly impacted areas and sectors to other areas and sectors through extensive and complex linkages Although numerous studies have focused on public or tourists attitudes towards climate change (see Henry, 2000; Becken, 2004 and 2007; Norgaard, 2006; GÃ ¶ssling et al., 2006; GÃ ¶ssling and Peeters, 2007), tourism managers perceptions and their strategies have been under-researched thus far. Becken (2004) found that, overall, tourism experts mostly academics were better informed about the effects of climate change than tourists. A previous study on tourism professionals attitudes towards climate change at the ITB Fair in Berlin (Lund-Durlacher et al., 2007) revealed that there was a high awareness of climate change among tourism professionals and strong impacts on tourism were expected. On the other hand, tourisms contribution to that problem was seen as only moderate. When asked about the specific causes and suitable mitigation strategies, it turned out that many of those surveyed had only limited and sometimes inaccurate knowledge. The study showed that the tourism sector is a ware of the challenge posed by climate change. Around 90 % of the interviewees believe that tourism will be affected by climate change. Yet there are few constructive ideas as to what could be done about it. When asked about responses to climate change, 34 % have no answer, and 56 % did not respond when asked if they had already developed adaptive strategies in their own area of business (Lund-Durlacher et al., 2007). Perhaps the tourism industry is ambivalent about adaptation to climate change, because the question of adapting tourism to climate change is ambivalent in itself. On the other hand, it is also evident that the tourism industry does not make any indispensable contribution to humanitys survival. Hence, in the light of the man-made problem of climate change the tourist industry comes under increased pressure to account for its ecological consequences. Several studies have pointed out that tourism is a source of negative ecological impact (Buttler, 1991, GÃ ¶ssling, 1999, 2000, GÃ ¶ssling et al., 2003, 2005, Neto, 2003, Shah et al., 2002, Welford et al., 1999). Tourism accounts for approximately 5 per cent of the total CO2 emissions (Davos Declaration, 2007). Especially air travel is detrimental to the global climate, since planes emit mostly in strata of the atmosphere most vulnerable to pollution (GÃ ¶ssling, 2000). Previous investigation on perceptions of climate change had indicated that public consciousness of the issue is high (Defra, 2006) with the great majority in 2005 believing that the worlds climate is altering and that action should be taken against it (Poortinga et al, 2006). A research was made from January to march 2010 on Public Perceptions of Climate Change and Energy Futures in Britain (Alexa Spence, Dan Venables, Nick Pidgeon, Wouter Pourtinga and Christina Demski, 2010) The main aim of that research was to investigate how public views in relation to climate change have changed since the major survey conducted by the research team in 2005, (Poortinga, Pidgeon and Lorenzoni, 2006). The results showed that although the majority of respondents believe that climate change is happening, levels of concern have fallen since 2005, and less than one-third of the population currently consider it to be a purely man-made phenomenon. However most people consider that it is their responsibility to take action against climate change, and that they personally can help to make a difference. In addition, most people say they would be willing to pay more for renewable energy and for projects designed to tackle climate change. Another research was carried out in Europe looking at Europeans Attitude towards Climate Change (EUROBAROMETER, 2008). The respondents were invited to give their opinion on a number of statements linked to the problem of climate change. Their attitudes can be summarised as follows: the issue of climate change is serious but the process is not unstoppable. Nearly two-thirds of Europeans (65%) do not think that the seriousness of climate change has been exaggerated, but they are nevertheless predominantly optimistic and widely disagree (60%) with the statement that the process of climate change is unstoppable. However, just under a third of Europeans (31%) are rather pessimistic and believe that climate change is an unstoppable process. Around a quarter (26%) think that the seriousness of climate change has been exaggerated. According to a wide majority of Europeans (70%), alternative fuels should be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 56% believe that fighting climate change can have a positive effect on the European economy. As far as the causes of climate change are concerned, a majority of citizens (55%) disagree with the statement that CO2 emissions have only a marginal impact on climate change. It is however noteworthy that a relatively high proportion of respondents have no opinion on these last two matters (20% and 15% respectively). Turning to citizens personal contribution to the fight against climate change, we see that a clear majority (61%) confirm that they have taken some kind of action in this cause. Scientists rarely cooperate directly with tourism managers. Studies that use transdisciplinary approaches to tourism are based solely on climate models (see for the case of Switzerland MÃ ¼ller, 2007). There is a lack of different disciplines working on the successful implementation of adaptation strategies. The anticipatory adaptation to extreme weather events and expected climate change is an important aspect of sustainable development in the tourism sector, as it can change the patterns of traveller flow and create a new demand for products of the either regular or new tourists. A strategically oriented tourism policy and business is therefore challenged to integrate climate change into their decision-making processes, in order to minimize socio-economic risks and take advantage of new opportunities. Individual activities made by single players are not sufficient enough to develop adjusted infrastructure and facilities for tourism. Besides the competition between tourism players and an innovation of products for a sustainable development in destinations, there is a need for learning cooperation processes. Current tourism-based analyses stress the importance of collective learning for the future of tourism destinations (Saretzi et al., 2002). Social and scientific complexity of adaptation strategies (diversity of partners, correlations of impacts, uncertainty of future trends) are to be considered for cooperation processes in tourism. To achieve this collaboration, a link between tourism as well as climatic knowledge and operating experience, concerns and perspectives is needed. In order to stimulate social learning to allow proactive action under uncertainty, scientists and players have to be involved into a transdisciplinary research, design and development process. Both the tourism industry and researchers have identified a threat to tourism resulting from climate change, especially in alpine areas, small island states, and developing countries (World Tourism Organisation, 2003). Climate change is also likely to affect global tourist flows as a result of the changing attractiveness of both destinations and countries of origin (Hamilton et al., 2005). The factor of seasonality is also a component of the tourism industry. Seasonality can be influenced by climatic changes in the future. To support this fact, a research was made in Canada, the study examined the relationship between climate and visitation in order to understand the potential impact of climate change on the volume of visits and seasonal pattern of tourism in Canadas national parks. Results indicated that Canadas national parks could experience an increase in visitors under climate change due to a lengthened and improved warm-weather tourism season. In the 2020s, overall visitation levels were projected to increase 6% to 8%, with a number of parks projected to experience larger increases (+12% to 30%). The largest increase in visitation occurs during the spring and fall months. Visitation is projected to increase between 9% and 29% system-wide in the 2050s and between 10% and 41% in the 2080s. As a result this shows a positive impact on certain attractions which will r eceive an increasing number of visitors in the future. This may apply to Mauritius, noting that there can be an increase in tourist arrivals due to climate change, but this will bring mass tourism, which will definitely cause other negative environmental impacts while injecting more revenue in the Mauritian economy. Climate can have physical, physiological and psychological effects for visitors to a destination. For example, the air temperature can make the potential activities of visitors to the Caribbean less enjoyable due to the share discomfort of going outdoors. Indeed, Lise and Tol (2002) in an examination of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) group of countries reported that visitors tend to prefer temperatures of around 21Ã °C at their choice of holiday destination and they suggested that global warming could therefore lead to a shift away from some destinations that either become too hot or too cold. Many tourism activities are dependent on the weather conditions, and as most tourists have a high flexibility to adjust their holiday destinations then it is expected that climate change would be important to the tourism sector. Several studies have shown that climate significantly influences the tourist behaviour and it is one of the keys for tourists when selecting their travel location and activities (Murphy et al., 2000; de Freitas, 2003; Matzarakis et al., 2004; Tzu-Ping Lin and Andreas Matzarakis). Although developing countries are not the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, they will be most adversely affected by the changing climate (Pavoola and Adger 2006) and most in need of adequate adaptation strategies (FÃ ¼ssel 2007). Developing countries often have, however, other priorities such as poverty eradication and economic growth than climate change (Mimura et al. 2007). The region to suffer most is predicted to be Africa (Brown et al. 2007) as African countries are dependent on climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, fisheries, tourism), which are forecasted to face considerable changes in the future (Climate change2008; Brown et al. 2007; Osman-Elasha 2007). Some predictions depict sea-level rise of 18-59 cm by the year 2100 in Africa (IPCC 2007), which would imply threats to coastal infrastructure, communities and ecosystems. Small islands states and low-lying coastal areas are especially vulnerable for climate change induced impacts and their adaptive capacity for adaptation measures is relatively low as they are limited by their size and geographical setting (Pelling Uitto 2001; Nicholls and Lowe 2004; Mimura et al. 2007). The most significant effects of sea-level rise are the long term recession of the shorelines, increasing inundation and flooding, and salt water intrusion. This would result in the direct loss of economically, ecologically and culturally valuable land (Dubi 2000). Although the impacts of climate change itself may not be the largest threat, they become serious threat when coupled with anthropogenic impacts. Non-sustainable resource use and development therefore reduce the adaptive capacity of the natural systems (Dubi 2000). Furthermore, sea-level rise has specific significance for small islands as coastal zones are often densely populated; furthermore, coastal erosion and natural hazards are predicted to increase in magnitude and number in the future. Moreover, as Ragoonaden (2006) notes, sea-level rise is the far greatest challenge for the small island developing states in the near future. Multiple actors cause pressures on the coastal and marine environment in island settings when diverse actors utilise the same resources (Vaitoti 2008) and these actions have also significance in relation to climate change impacts. For example, the destruction of coral reefs will reduce coastal protection against storm surges and erosion (Lewsey et al 2004; Middleton 1999); in addition there is a strong correlation between coral reef destruction and climate change due to rising temperatures. An increase in sea water temperature and sea-level coupled with destructive fishing methods adversely affect the growth potential of coral, which will in turn reduce the protective ability (Dubi 2000). In addition, coral reefs cannot keep up with sudden sea-level rise due to their fixed growth pace and rising water temperature can advance coral bleaching (Reading et al. 1995). Moreover, coral reefs acts as a buffer against waves and reduce coastal erosion (Cesar et al. 2000; Ragoonaden 2006) and t herefore their role in protecting the shoreline cannot be underestimated. While the wider climate change debate has until recently mainly focused on mitigation (Burton et al., 2002; Wilbanks, 2003; Nicholls and Lowe, 2004), the sparse research specifically dealing with tourism and climate change has largely concentrated on tourisms vulnerability and adaptation to climate change (e.g., Elsasser and Buerki, 2002; Scott, 2003; Scott et al., 2003). Both the tourism industry and researchers have identified a threat to tourism resulting from climate change, especially in alpine areas, small island states, and developing countries (World Tourism Organisation, 2003). Climate change is also likely to affect global tourist flows as a result of the changing attractiveness of both destinations and countries of origin (Hamilton et al., 2005). Despite an inherent interest in protecting the tourism industry, there is increasing awareness that tourism is an important contributor to climate change through its consumption of fossil fuels and resulting greenhouse gas emissio ns (Becken, 2002; GoÃ ¨ ssling, 2002). The wider literature on climate change now emphasises that neither adaptation nor mitigation should be implemented independently, but that an integrated framework for sustainable development should be envisaged (IPCC, 2001; Nicholls and Lowe, 2004). In the same way, research on climate change and tourism will benefit from taking into account the multiple interactions between climate, tourism, and the wider environment (Dubois, 2003; Viner and Amelung, 2003).
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
CharlemagneÃ¢â¬â¢s Imperial Coronation The imperial coronation of Charlemagne has been a source of dispute between scholars of this era for a period of time, perhaps due to the fact that the sources available are often biased and the historical information, often vague. Historians have argued that perhaps it had been Charlemagne himself who instigated the coronation possibly as a means to consolidate his power and place himself and the Frankish empire on a par with the model in place in the Byzantine regions. Others have suggested that it was in fact the doing of the papacy at the time. Charlemagne had offered great support and interest in religious affairs and could be suggested that it had been a pre-emptive strike to ensure that the ruler did not take advantage of the weakening state of the papacy in this period. Also, Charlemagne offered to the papacy a strong figure of protection, some one that would defend their interests and aid a shift of religious power from Constantinople to Rome. However, the events leading up to his imperial coronation can not be established without first examining the relations between Charlemagne and the religious section, nor can either argument as to how the coronation came about, be dismissed without establishing the background to the event. Charlemagne is known to be one of the most notable leaders from the Frankish reign and era. After Pepin the Short died in 768, his lands, the Frankish kingdom which he established had been divided by tradition between his two sons, Charlemagne and Carloman. However, after Carloman's death and the quick disposition of his two sons, the heirs to his portion of the kingdom, Charlemagne soon became the sole leader of the Franks. This consolidation of power on CharlemagneÃ¢â¬â¢s part soon left him in a position of great supremacy and soon he began the military conquests that would mark his reign. By doing so, he not only was able to extend his control by establishing a supreme Frankish empire but also elated him into the realm of a Ã¢â¬ËgreatÃ¢â¬â¢ leader. The first ten years of his reign were marked by the traditional business of his house- fighting and military conquest. However, soon afterwards his military campaigns took on another role, not only that of conquest, expansion and plunder but now could be seen within his campaigns a growing sense of his Christian mission. One of the most notable crusades of this era is perhaps his fight against the Saxons, whom to Charlemagne were a fierce pagan people, settled along the course of the Wiser and Elbe rivers and east of the Rhine. CharlemagneÃ¢â¬â¢s Imperial Coronation :: essays research papers CharlemagneÃ¢â¬â¢s Imperial Coronation The imperial coronation of Charlemagne has been a source of dispute between scholars of this era for a period of time, perhaps due to the fact that the sources available are often biased and the historical information, often vague. Historians have argued that perhaps it had been Charlemagne himself who instigated the coronation possibly as a means to consolidate his power and place himself and the Frankish empire on a par with the model in place in the Byzantine regions. Others have suggested that it was in fact the doing of the papacy at the time. Charlemagne had offered great support and interest in religious affairs and could be suggested that it had been a pre-emptive strike to ensure that the ruler did not take advantage of the weakening state of the papacy in this period. Also, Charlemagne offered to the papacy a strong figure of protection, some one that would defend their interests and aid a shift of religious power from Constantinople to Rome. However, the events leading up to his imperial coronation can not be established without first examining the relations between Charlemagne and the religious section, nor can either argument as to how the coronation came about, be dismissed without establishing the background to the event. Charlemagne is known to be one of the most notable leaders from the Frankish reign and era. After Pepin the Short died in 768, his lands, the Frankish kingdom which he established had been divided by tradition between his two sons, Charlemagne and Carloman. However, after Carloman's death and the quick disposition of his two sons, the heirs to his portion of the kingdom, Charlemagne soon became the sole leader of the Franks. This consolidation of power on CharlemagneÃ¢â¬â¢s part soon left him in a position of great supremacy and soon he began the military conquests that would mark his reign. By doing so, he not only was able to extend his control by establishing a supreme Frankish empire but also elated him into the realm of a Ã¢â¬ËgreatÃ¢â¬â¢ leader. The first ten years of his reign were marked by the traditional business of his house- fighting and military conquest. However, soon afterwards his military campaigns took on another role, not only that of conquest, expansion and plunder but now could be seen within his campaigns a growing sense of his Christian mission. One of the most notable crusades of this era is perhaps his fight against the Saxons, whom to Charlemagne were a fierce pagan people, settled along the course of the Wiser and Elbe rivers and east of the Rhine.
Sunday, November 10, 2019
Is booking travel over the internet causing the decline of high street travel agents? During the decade leading up to 2007, ways of buying tourism products as changed a lot. Ten years ago people choosing a holiday more often than not a package holiday, by going to the travel agent and choosing one from a number of brochures and after chatting with the travel agent. Many people still chose this method but a lot more people are buying packing holidays, more people now buy online, or over the telephone, through teletext. People tended to find it cheaper to and more flexible to buy their flights from one internet site, their accommodation from another and book a hire car with another site, rather than buying a package holiday out of a tour operatorÃ¢â¬â¢s brochure. They are not always financially, protected when booking travel separately. Holidaymakers are Ã¢â¬Å"turning their backs on the traditional high-street travel agent in favour of booking trips onlineÃ¢â¬ , reports sundayherald. com. Between 2000 and 2004 there was an 11% drop in the number of bookings made at travel agents, with only 47% of overseas holidays now being reserved through a high street travel agency, according to figures from market researchers Mintel. Many people book breaks by phone, and just 31% of overseas trips were booked in person in 2004,Ã¢â¬ says the report. Ã¢â¬Å"The research shows that traditional sun, sand and sangria package holidays are the main type of trip booked on the high street, with just one in five d omestic trips booked at travel agencies. Richard Cope, international travel analyst at Mintel, reportedly said consumer confidence in the internet was driving people away from booking in person. Ã¢â¬Å"MintelÃ¢â¬â¢s research shows that almost one in five UK holidays are now booked online, with consumers becoming increasingly confident about making their own travel arrangements. Ã¢â¬ Mintel figures also indicated that, overall, more holidays are being taken. In 2004 65% of British people went on holiday, compared to 62% in 2000. Some 44% of holidaymakers now take more than one holiday a year, up 14% since 2000. Altogether, Britons took 43 million holidays abroad in 2004. http://www. m-travel. com/news/2005/10/number_of_booki. html Technological changes within tourism surround several different factors from medical advances to the innovative space tourism. Similar to tourism, technology is an ever changing and sometimes unstable business. Better communication, transport and safety have encouraged new consumers to the industry. Improvements in water supply, medicine and knowledge have meant areas are opened up which were not possible before technological advances. In todayÃ¢â¬â¢s society in which a consumer wants easier, quicker and cheaper service only technology has helped tourism fulfil the customers demand. Another massive effect on tourism is the rapid increase in online booking that has given consumers more opportunity to make a holiday. Through technological advances, online booking has been one of the biggest factors in affecting tourism, leisure and recreation in todayÃ¢â¬â¢s world. There were 37,600,000 Internet users in the United Kingdom (representing 62. % of the population) in March 2007, according to Internet World Stats. This was up by 144. 2% compared to 2000. (Internet World Stats, March 2007) and a new Google Survey has shown that surfing the web has topped watching television as BritainÃ¢â¬â¢s favourite past time. On average residents in the UK spend 164 minutes online every day compared to 148 minutes watching television (Daily Mail, Friday 10th March 2006). This shows how much the internet is now an integral part of life and has had an effect on other aspects influencing the tourism business. More and more people are now booking their holiday on the internet, as many people are looking for a better priced deal than theyÃ¢â¬â¢re being offered by their travel agent. Both holiday and airline bookings have not dramatically rose in sales from the travel slump of 2001-02 due to the massive consequences of September 11th and the threat of terrorism which has increased (it saw similar slumps although smaller after the Madrid bombings and 7/7 terrorist attacks). The Iraq war, the SARS/bird flu epidemics and very consistent hot European summers have persuaded the usual long haul travellers to stay at home. This has seen a loss in sales and therefore profits causing one of the hardest aviation crises of the industry. The number of job cuts that were announced in 2003/04 was well over 100,000 according to BBC News, November 2005. Routes had been slashed and several European carriers were barely clinging to life. The turmoil in the industry went from Aer Lingus to XL Airways, but times were changing and the industry needed something new. Survival tactics started to emerge and online travel started to show evidence of bucking this gloomy trend. The Interactive Media in Retail Group (IMRG), as cited in a May 21, 2002, Financial Times article had cited for many years that online spending was increasing and predicted it to triple at the end of the decade. Looking at e-commerce data overall, the firm counted travel as the biggest online sector, followed by electronic products and apparel. IMRG also said British shoppers were buying larger and more expensive goods online, such as furniture and kitchen appliances. This showed a large gap in the sub-market that needed to be exploited. Online Travel Spend ($bn) Europe N. AmericaU. K 20002. 4 6. 4 0. 20015. 8 11. 00 1. 8 200212. 7 18. 7 3. 7 Source: Datamonitor At the start of the boom these were seen as survival tactics by the airlines and the government also pushed for more progress in online booking to make the travel industry more prosperous. The economic realities forced travel companies to be more efficient in running their business. Websites, for example were able to promote the latest ticket prices, particularly at a time when they were being slashed on a day-to-day basis which was used to tempt travelers back into the air. Similarly travel sites e-mailed a wide ustomer base with relative ease to promote special deals. It is seen as the cheapest method of booking a holiday, the LogicaCMG (a marketing body) has said that phone bookings typically cost about ? 30 to service. By contrast net bookings cost around 75p. One of the biggest online travel sites Expedia, took an initial knock from 11 September, but then saw its transaction volumes recover by 80-85% during October. Ã¢â¬Å"Like every travel company, we experienced a downturn, but we then recovered a lot more quickly than the traditional industryÃ¢â¬ said James Vaile, managing director of Expedia in the UK. Online travel sites are also well positioned to exploit the recent procrastination by consumers in booking holidays. People are booking later than usual in recent years and the internet is seen as the obvious and natural place to hunt down last-minute bargains. As this bar chart shows travel sales online rose rapidly from 2006-2007 and it is expected to continue to rise to over $30 billion. The consumers werenÃ¢â¬â¢t only using the internet to book their holidays but also to research and gain knowledge of the destinations they wanted to go to. The search engines were flooded with searches over cheap flights, accommodation and new destinations (as shown in the rankings). From the bar chart below it shows that web-search is the preferred method of obtaining travel information with it being preferred nearly twice as much as personal recommendation, the second most preferred method. This is then followed by TV programmes, but the travel agents became the fourth option of consumers to collect travel information. Web-searches are high due to people liking to make their own decisions at their own pace and this canÃ¢â¬â¢t be done in travel agents where they are pushed, poked and pressured. This is unpleasant for the consumer and has changed the trend in which consumers went to travel agents for advice, whereas now they would rather use the internet. As this pie chart to the left shows the internet has had a huge impact on the booking of a holiday, with 79% of all booked holidays using the internet in the process. Also, the internet has seen a large increase in the number of Ã¢â¬Å"last minuteÃ¢â¬ business as many tourists feel it is better-placed and they can search for the best priced, most suitable holidays or excursions. Furthermore, since the growth of the internet, online advertising has been used as a huge marketing tool, where holiday and travel providers can target large quantities of potential customers and keep advertising costs low. This has also been used to great effect as they appear to be a successful method and an efficient way of gaining business from the wallet-conscious consumers, whereas high street advertising receives less notice. Moreover, the internet has caused the high street travel agencies to close, therefore creating job losses within the businesses. This is mainly due to the fact that more people are booking direct with the holiday providers, thus cutting out the middle man and saving money by doing the research and booking themselves. This is usually done by using the internet or telephone booking where the overhead costs are much lower as an outlet has to be staffed and incur running costs such as electricity bills and also because of the larger volumes of people that are able to access the service. A recent example of this is was in 2001, when Airtours, the UKÃ¢â¬â¢s largest tour operator had to cut one-in-seven of its high street branches in an effort to return to profitability. According to finance director David Jardine, around 120 shops going under the name Ã¢â¬Å"Going PlacesÃ¢â¬ were closed as the business stated that they were finding there was an Ã¢â¬Å"increasing trend in customers wishing to book directÃ¢â¬ . On the other hand, online companies such as Expedia. com have seen their profits on the rise over the past few years as would be expected, although they had not anticipated such a large growth. For the last three months of 2001, Expedia saw its net income surge to $19m according to BBC News, compared with a loss of $2. 6m in the same quarter of 2000 and also the firms evenues were in excess of $80 million for 2001, over double that for 2000, showing how quickly it has established itself as an efficient internet booking service. So in conclusion online booking for travel has dramatically changed tourism in the world. It has provided a less time consuming, cost effective and an overall efficient/productive method in organising tourism which has seen triggered a rapid rise in sales. Airlines are now recovering after effects that were unforeseen. BAA Limited, formerly the British Airport Association said seven UK Airports handled a total of 11. m passengers in August 2006 making it a record summer with the highest number of passengers ever recorded over a two month period. BAA also revealed here was a 6. 8% increase in passenger traffic for the 12 months to August 31st 2006. Bigger discounts and better security could tempt more people to book holidays online, a LogicaCMG survey (http://news. bbc. co. uk/1/hi/technology/3939035. stm) found. However, the future of online booking although seen as prosperous can also turn, but due to the recovery in airline business they are starting to hit back. Prices are starting to rise and now you must book early to get the best price. The same survey revealed that online discounts were still not high enough to tempt potential customers onto travel websites and that the process was still too complicated for some consumers. A serious issue with online booking is the fear of fraud. Consumers are not convinced that any personal and financial information they hand over would be kept secure by online travel shops and this is slowing the potential growth that could occur otherwise. The Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) sees the online travel market having a long way to go before it replaces high street travel agents. ABTA estimates that by the end of 2007 online travel will be 17% of the UKÃ¢â¬â¢s ? 28bn travel market but this growth will only occur if trends continue as it relies on steadily growing numbers of people happy to book holidays online and as well as improvements in technology and the creation of better websites by travel firms. Issues over security, faults and complications need to be solved if this method of booking is to prosper.
Friday, November 8, 2019
Useful Stock Phrases for Your Business Emails Useful Stock Phrases for Your Business Emails Useful Stock Phrases for Your Business Emails By Ali Hale When I wrote a post on email etiquette, one reader, Juan, left a comment to ask for some advice (IÃ¢â¬â¢ve changed his punctuation a bit for clarityÃ¢â¬â¢s sake): I just discovered your page and I love it. Please teach me before we sign off the mail with Ã¢â¬Å"warm regardsÃ¢â¬ etc ,we also always using some phrasal sentences such as Ã¢â¬Å"please look into this matterÃ¢â¬ or Ã¢â¬Å"thank you in advanceÃ¢â¬ , Ã¢â¬Å"I would be very appreciate on your help in this matterÃ¢â¬ , etc. Could you please write some more like those in different contents of mails? What JuanÃ¢â¬â¢s describing here are stock phrases. If you write a lot of emails, youÃ¢â¬â¢ll often find yourself facing the same sorts of situations again and again, and youÃ¢â¬â¢ll often see stock phrases used in business emails to convey a professional, helpful and friendly tone. I agree with Juan that it can definitely help to have some ready-crafted sentences on hand for including in your emails Ã¢â¬â either just keeping them in mind, or creating a document on your computer to hold them ready for copy-and-pasting. The trick is to make them heart-felt rather than copied-and-pasted. There are a few phrases which I see constantly in emails from huge technical support firms, government offices and similar organisations: used carelessly, they can feel distancing or insincere. IÃ¢â¬â¢ve listed some options below for different types of email situations, such as: When youÃ¢â¬â¢re initiating email contact with someone new When youÃ¢â¬â¢ve answered someoneÃ¢â¬â¢s question When youÃ¢â¬â¢re asking the recipient to take some action When you need a response (but not necessarily any action taking) When youÃ¢â¬â¢ve heard nothing back and want to chase up a reply Unless your boss is particularly uptight, why not try going with the more informal ones? I work in a small technical support team who have a great reputation for being friendly, helpful and accessible Ã¢â¬â in part, because we use everyday language and remember that weÃ¢â¬â¢re writing to people, not just trying to knock another email out of the queue. HereÃ¢â¬â¢s some examples you might want to use, or modify, for your own email messages Ã¢â¬ ¦ feel free to bookmark the page, or print it out for easy reference. When youÃ¢â¬â¢re initiating email contact with someone new Very formal Ã¢â¬Å"Might I take a moment of your timeÃ¢â¬ (to begin the email) Ã¢â¬Å"Please may I introduce myselfÃ¢â¬ (to begin the email) Ã¢â¬Å"Many thanks again for your time.Ã¢â¬ (to end the email) More informal/friendly Ã¢â¬Å"Im just emailing to askÃ¢â¬ (to begin the email) Ã¢â¬Å"Im a friend of BobsÃ¢â¬ (to begin the email) Ã¢â¬Å"Just let me know if you have any questions.Ã¢â¬ (to end the email) Ã¢â¬Å"Drop me an email, or give me a ring, if you want any more information.Ã¢â¬ (to end the email) When youve answered someones question(s) Very formal Ã¢â¬Å"I trust the above resolves your queries. Should you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.Ã¢â¬ More informal/friendly Ã¢â¬Å"I know thats a lot to take in, so let me know if anything Ive said doesnt make sense.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Hope the above helps, but email again if youre still having any difficulties.Ã¢â¬ When youÃ¢â¬â¢re asking the recipient to take some action Very formal Ã¢â¬Å"I would appreciate your help in this matter.Ã¢â¬ More informal/friendly Ã¢â¬Å"Could you look into this?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Would you mind checking it out for me?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Thanks in advance.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Can you get back to me once youve had a chance to investigate?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Id love to hear your advice on this one.Ã¢â¬ When you need a response (but not necessarily any action taking) Very formal Ã¢â¬Å"I await a response at your earliest convenience.Ã¢â¬ More informal/friendly Ã¢â¬Å"Can you drop me a quick word so I know youve received this?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Look forward to hearing from you.Ã¢â¬ When youÃ¢â¬â¢ve heard nothing back and want to chase up a reply Very formal Ã¢â¬Å"In reference to my email of June 20th Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ More informal/friendly Ã¢â¬Å"Just wondered if you got my email (June 20th)?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"When you get a moment, could you drop me a line about my last email?Ã¢â¬ Do you have any favourite stock phrases that you use in your work emails? Add yours in the comments! Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Business Writing category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:Program vs. Programme"Confused With" and "Confused About"Comment, Suggestion, and Feedback
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
Avicenna on Induction.Doc Essay Example Avicenna on Induction.Doc Essay Avicenna on Induction.Doc Essay Avicenna on Induction M. A. Ejeii University of Isfahan ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to discuss Avicennas deductive justification of induction. The paper introduces AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s theory of induction as a post-falsificationist theory of his time, and then proceeds to discuss a distinction he has made between induction and experience. The paper then discusses the theory and focuses on some of the problems related to AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s claim that our belief in inductive generalization is based on a deductive structure, and differentiates it from a view criticized by Hume. The paper ends up with a short comparison of what Avicenna, Hume and Ayer say on the kind justification in question. Keywords: Avicenna, Ayer, Hume, Induction, Experience, deductive justification, Principle of Plenitude. Introduction Inductive reasoning is discussed in almost all AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s logical works. But his most detailed discussion of induction occurs in his encyclopedic work Al-Shifa (The Healing), in Kitab al-Burhan (Book of Demonstration). For the purpose of our current discussion it is important to note that, prior to AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s time, there had been some philosophical discussion of the problem of induction, and various attempts to find justification for inductive knowledge. Among these theories there had also existed a falsificationist view to which Al-Farabi (d. 950/51), AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s predecessor, adhered. The following excerpt, which the writer found in one of his logical works, corroborates the point: And there are some others who wanted to validate (tas-hih, making sound/correct) the major premise through induction, but when they found that induction is inadequate for that purpose, a point, which we have frequently made in what we said before, they rejected induction as a means for justifying that premise, and used it instead to falsify it. Now, one can safely assume that Avicenna had been quite familiar with the views of his well known predecessor and the kind of critical approach to the problem of induction that al-Farabi is talking about, As a result, AvcennaÃ¢â ¢s own treatment of the problem can be seen as comparable to that of the post-falsificationist theorists of our own time. Thus his suggestions can be found relevant to current discussions of the problem and contribute to discussions. Unfortunately there is no further reference to, and information on this topic in al-FarabiÃ¢â ¢s extant works, but assuming Avicennas familiarity with those discussions and works, his treatment of the problem can be seen comparable to the post-falsificationist theorists of our time, that in their treatment of induction have reverted to concepts of causality and essences.  1. Experience vs. Induction AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s deductive justification of induction Inductive reasoning is discussed in almost all Avicennas logical works. But his most detailed discussion of induction occurs in his encyclopedic work Al-Shtfa (The Healing), in Kitab al-Burhan (Book of Demonstration). The cornerstone of Avicennas theory of inductive reasoning is a distinction he makes between experience and incomplete induction. According to him experience is a rationally justified procedure, while (incomplete) induction is not. In Al-Najat (Deliverance) he defines induction as a judgment about a universal, inasmuch as it is realized in its particularsÃ¢â ¢. The definition is intended to cover both complete and incomplete induction in their Aristotelian sense. Hence Avicenna immediately proceeds to divide induction thus defined into two kinds, complete and incomplete: either in all particulars, which will be a complete induction, or in some of them, and this will be an incomplete inductionÃ¢â ¢. The undivided sense is in agreement with AristotleÃ¢â ¢s definition of induction as stated in Topics, i.e. a passage from individuals to universalsÃ¢â ¢. It also accords with induction as discussed in Prior Analytics, i.e., a passage from all the species of a genus to a generalization about the genus itself.Ã¢â ¢ The inadequacy of incomplete induction is emphasized in almost all of AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s logical works. Here is a quotation from his Daneshnameh (Book of Knowledge): And when those who indulge in inductive reasoning observe that many or most cases are of a certain attribute, they conclude that all are so. But the conclusion does not necessarily hold true, since it may be that the unobserved instances are contrary to the observed ones, and while a hundred thousand instances agree, yet there may be another that doesnÃ¢â ¢t. This is exemplified by the case of crocodile, which moves its upper jaw [when chewing], and not its lower one. Having rejected (incomplete) induction as a means of justifying empirical generalizations, Avicenna, instead describes a partially similar procedure which he calls experienceÃ¢â ¢. While by definition not a species of deduction, experience, nevertheless, exhibits a deductive structure. In short, the process of attaining certainty in empirical generalizations, according to Avicenna, starts with the observation of particulars, and then reaches its conclusion through a deductive mode of thought, a deduction that elsewhere calls concealed (or imperceived) deduction. It is due to the introduction of this deductive mode that experience differs from induction and the conclusion of an inductive reasoning is in fact justified. But what exactly is this concealed or imperceived inference Avicennas characterization suggests a natural explanation. However, in order to explain the details it will be convenient to rely as much as possible on Avicennas texts. This, of course, calls for lengthy quotations, but due to the importance of the point in question the reader, hopefully, will find it rewarding. In the following quotation Avicenna first illustrates the difference between induction and experience by an example, and then discusses some objections to, and possible misunderstandings of, his method he experience and the concealed inference involved. So let us start with his argument for the method of experience: Experience, however, is different from induction. And we shall soon explain what the difference consists in. Experience is like drawing the conclusion: scammony is purgative of bile. Surely when that happens frequently enough, it cannot any longer be considered as a matter of coincidence. So we make the judgment that it is in the nature (ShaÃ¢â ¢n) of scammony to be purgative of bile, and we are assured of that.  Further down, on the same page, but in another connection, Avicenna states the same argument in slightly different words: When it is verified repeatedly that the purging of bile follows the administration of scammony, we will conclude that this cannot be regarded as a matter of coincidence. Since what is coincidentally true cannot occur always or frequently. Thus we conclude that it is caused by scammony. The above argument uses as its major premise the principle What is true as a matter of coincidence cannot occur always or frequentlyÃ¢â ¢. This premise together with the frequently observed fact that administration of scammony is followed by the purging of bile, yields the conclusion: scammony is purgative of bile. The argument is thus, a hypothetical syllogism and has the form of: (1) p ( ~ q, ~ ~ q, /( ~ p The argument (1) is a deductive one, but it is not to be confused with another argument, also called deductive, discussed often in the literature, and propounded first by Hume in order to criticize it. We shall discuss that argument in part 3 below. The argument (1) also called concealed or imperceived deduction, lies at the ground of our belief in empirical generalizations. Now for example, when under the familiar same circumstances a sufficient number of cases of administration of scammony were followed by purging of bile, due to the concealed argument (1) with the major premise What is true as a matter of coincidence cannot occur always or frequentlyÃ¢â ¢ results in the conclusion Scammony is purgative of bileÃ¢â ¢. The first premise says if things did occur as a matter of coincidence then it would not be that they occur always or frequentlyÃ¢â ¢. Now, negating the consequent (canceling double negation) we shall have: therefore the course of events in question is not a matte r of coincidenceÃ¢â ¢, i.e., Scammony is purgative of bile. Thus, when a sufficient number of observations made of the administration of scion being followed by purging of bile, or that water boils when heated to a certain temperature, then under the conditions described below in part 2, on the ground of general principle of causation and in the form of Modus Tollens one concludes the generalization that `Scammony is purgative of bile`, or ` water boils when heated to a certain temperature`. AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s example is a typical causal law, i.e., a law that mentions a cause and an effect. It, however, can be easily generalized to the so called functional relationship, like the one which exits in the gas law in its classic form, and which establishes a relation between the volume, temperature, and (external and internal) pressure of a gas. The general form of the concealed argument, of course, remains the same as in (1). It seems to me, though I will not argue it here, that the principle that whatever is true as a matter of coincidence cannot occur always or frequentlyÃ¢â ¢ is related somehow to the Principle of Plenitude according to which everything that is possible will also some time come true. Avicenna seems to be committed to this principle in Al-Shifa. In that book he always equates possibility with being sometimes true and necessity with being always true. However there is another suggestion for the origin of the principle. Professor Weinberg has suggested that the principle is directly derived from Aristotle. Professor Weinberg does not mention any reference to AristotleÃ¢â ¢s works, but his suggestion is supported by AristotleÃ¢â ¢s text in his discussion of the four causes, in Physics, II, where he talks about chance and spontaneity. I shall return to this issue in the appendix. 2. Explanation and Further Elucidation We shall now turn to a question that is essential to AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s theory of induction, and of which he is concerned to clear up some possible confusion. Here again I shall quote first a passage in which he summarizes his method from the end of his discussion in al-Shifa, and then explain various points he makes by adding further details. In the quotation that follows the numbers have been inserted to demarcate the different elements of his theory. He writes: What we are saying is this:  Often, as a result of experience, we find ourselves in a state of certainty, and we want to explicate the circumstances under which the certainty is attained.  This happens when we are assured that nothing accidental is taken into account, and  this in turn will be the case when the properties of the object are known to us, and  we find out that when the object exists some other thing always or often follows, and that when the object does not exist, that other thing does not follow either.  makes it explicit that Avicenna is not skeptic about the possibility of knowledge. Thus his aim is the central goal of doing philosophy of science, i.e., to explain and validate scientific knowledge. In his words the question is, under what circumstances the state of certainty in scientific knowledge is attained  and  are essential to his view and state the circumstances under which the generalizations are arrived at and lead to certainty. The term accidental, as it occurs in , is used in its widest sense, meaning, not causing the effect. As an example of this, he mentions a generalization about scammony being purgative of bile, when the plant is grown in certain countries, but not in others. According to him, the generalization fails because something accidental to the situation is mistaken for what is essential. He writes: Thus nor do we deny that scammony may acquire, or lack, some specific nature or characteristic in some regions such that it may not be purgative of bile. Rather the experiential judgment must be as follows: the scammony of the kind known to us at present, and through our senses, is, by its nature, or because of a certain property in it, purgative of bile, unless an impediment intervenes.  In other words the generalization is not about scommony absolutely or under any condition, it is rather about the kind presently known to us, and through our senses. The argument is that if scammoy under such and such condition were not purgative of bile, this would not have happened often or regularly. The conditions include for example the property of being scammony grown in some specific region, and not just being scammony. He offers a similar explanation when he discusses another counterexample adduced by a critic. The counterexample has resulted from an imagined observation made in Sudan, where it is supposed that no other men but the colored are in sight and they are the only people that appear to the senses. Upon repeated observations, the critic continues, one should conclude the false generalization that All men are coloredÃ¢â ¢. Discussing this counterexample, Avicenna explains the observation here is not being carried out just among human beings, as is implied by the con clusion, but among human beings under such and such conditions, or from such and such parents.. He writes: In short, if by birth is taken [to mean] as being born of colored people, or born in such and such a country the experiential judgment will hold true. But if the conclusion is taken generally, i.e. as being born of people, then the conclusion will not hold with regard to the particulars referred to. For the experience has been carried out among colored people and not just among people, and these two are not the same things. Thus  constitutes AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s diagnosis for all cases in which experience leads to error, These are cases in which something accidental is taken into account, namely what is not really a cause is taken as a necessary or a sufficient condition for the phenomenon in question. However, he mentions that if the characteristic is coextensive with the one under investigation, the conclusion will hold in connection with it also. It is for this reason and other disturbing conditions that Avicenna is prepared to accept that experience can sometimes lead to error: We never maintain that experience is immune from error, and that it always leads to certainty. How can that be maintained, while even syllogistic inferences are not exempt from error In order to arrive at elements that are essential to a causal connection, (3) is introduced. According to (3), to achieve a correct generalization the properties of the object must be known to us. This is required in order to determine the properties from whose existence the effect follows, and also to eliminate the possibility of there being some other factors that are essential but not taken into account. The certainty will obtain to the extent that we are assured the initial conditions obtain and are the same as those that existed in our observations. This of course will not affect the deductive structure of inductive reasoning described earlier.  states the concealed deduction. The central question about the major premise is, is that proposition analytic or synthetic To complete our discussion of the state of AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s deductive justification of inductive generalizations, two further points must be discussed. The first concerns the indispensability of deduction in inductive generalizations, and the second pertains to the hypothetical nature of generalizations thus arrived at. Avicenna evidently does not here mean that inductive generalization is purely a deductive process, but only that without the deduction generalization will not be formed. He writes: It is not by reason of the frequency of the observed instances alone that the universal judgment in question is formed, but rather as a result of frequently observed effect, together with the deduction we have just mentioned. The above point is important, since some people think that the deduction in question is not needed. Avicenna flatly rejects the idea that induction is purely enumerative or self-supporting. The above point is the basis of his whole theory of experience. Another point is the kind of relevance the concealed deduction bears to experiential generalization. According to Avicenna if the deduction were not to be formed, the certainty invested through observation would not be imparted to the conclusion. A next point concerns the hypothetical nature of inductive generalization obtained; the conclusion itself is hypothetical and not categorical. As a limitative aspect of his experiential method, Avicenna is much concerned to point out that the generalities thus arrived at are not absolute, but conditional, conditional upon the existence of the circumstances in which observations have been carried out. It follows, that the subsequent application of the laws in question will hold true only in cases where the circumstances under which the generalization is made obtain. Such laws, then, will not take the simple form, If x is an instance of scammony, then, given that it is prescribed, it will be purgative of bile, but the much more restrictive form: If x is an instance of the scammony of the kind k observed in this region which is here and now present to our senses, then, given k, it will be purgative of bile, unless an impediment intervenes. This in part is to ensure that the condition (2) holds. In this connection Avicenna writes: The judgment will hold universally only under those conditions in which the experience is being made, and the frequently observed property of the object will pertain to the nature of the object permanently only in the region in which the observation has been carried out. And that will be the case unless an impediment intervenes. Thus the universal judgment formed through experience will hold true under these conditions, and not absolutely. But isnÃ¢â ¢t the condition only in the regionÃ ¦Ã¢â ¢ too restrictive In other words, does not the condition make the conclusion unduly restricted in scope, and thus quite unsuitable to be used as a premise in demonstrative sciences The answer is that the conclusion will not be restricted in scope in the sense in which the statement all the hair on my head is blackÃ¢â ¢ is. Rather it is restricted in the sense that the statement all hair having the same condition the hair on my head has, is blackÃ¢â ¢ is restricted. In fact, he wants to see generalizations thus obtained as supported by corresponding true counterfactuals. He writes: However if the subject matter is of a specific nature, then the specific quality may be what has been effective in the majority of instances available to us in our observations. This will no doubt prevent the conclusion from being unrestrictedly general, and requires it to be more specific with regard to the nature of the things observed. Failure to see this point can make the result of experience erroneous with respect to generality. Although in cases like that we are assured that an object, which is so and so will be such and such, we are never assured that, if any thing is so and so then it will be such and such. 3. A Note on a Criticism of Deductive Justification of Induction. An objection has been sometimes raised against a version of deductive justification that differs fundamentally from the one discussed by Avicenna. The version in question is first discussed by Hume in order to criticize it. It uses the principle that Nature is uniform as its major premise. Ayer raises an objection to Hume suggestion and argues that if the deduction thus formed is accepted it can prove too much, and it would have unexpected consequences. We shall briefly discuss AyerÃ¢â ¢s objection in order to show that AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s deductive justification is not open to this kind of criticism. A. J. Ayer in his Probability and Evidence, discussing various stages of HumeÃ¢â ¢s skeptical argument, at a certain stage finds himself obliged to part company with himÃ¢â ¢. This is where Hume, discussing the problem we are dealing with, holds that to make an inductive conclusion valid we need as an extra premises the principle that instances of which we have had no experience must resemble those of which we have had experience and that the course of nature continues always uniformly the sameÃ¢â ¢. Ayer adds: The obvious objection is that a principle so general as the one that Hume advocates cannot possibly do the work that is here required of it. We cannot validate the inference form all observed As are Bs to All As are Bs by adding as a major premises Nature is uniform`. The syllogism `Nature is uniform`, `All hitherto observed swans have been white`, therefore `All swans are white` is not to be rejected as John Stuart Mill maintained, just because the minor premise turned out to be false and so landed us with a false conclusion. It was invalid all along. AyerÃ¢â ¢s contention here is that the syllogism `Nature is uniform`, `All hitherto observed swans have been white`, therefore `All swans are white` is not invalid either because its major premise is false as Hume thinks, or because its minor premise is false as Mill says, but because the syllogism is formally invalid. Given that the universe is uniform and that All hitherto observed swans have been whiteÃ¢â ¢ it would not logically follow that `All swans are white`. Thus the argument is to be rejected not because some of its premises are invalid, but because the inference has not a valid form. Ayer continues: But of course such discoveries are not taken as refuting the uniformity of nature. They are taken only as proving that the uniformities that nature exhibits are in some respects different from what we had supposed them to be. Not `All swans are white` but `All swans are nonchromatic`, or, All swans are white under such and such conditionsÃ¢â ¢, or black, under such and such other conditions. These few lines are in complete agreement with what Avicenna has to say in the presence of a falsifying situation. The discovery of non-colored human beings was explained by saying that being born of human parents is not a sufficient condition for a newly born human being to be colored. It is interesting to note that the language and the example used here by Ayer are pretty much the same as the ones used by Avicenna : Ayer uses the example here to refute the deductive justification of induction, but Avicenna uses his example to remove a possible misunderstanding concerning his proposed method. According to Avicenna the conclusion is false not because its major is false, but because the conditions under which the observations are made are not taken into account in the conclusion. Here Ayer seems to interpret uniformity of natureÃ¢â ¢ in its weak sense, while as it is obvious from the context of MillÃ¢â ¢s argument, he actually uses the phrase in a stronger sense, in which it means uniformity under the specific circumstances where the experience is madeÃ¢â ¢. Leaving this point aside, to be sure, Ayer is right in holding the deductive generalization cannot be validated by adding as its major premises Nature is uniform`, since this would not be a valid argument form. In contrast, the deduction described by Avicenna is of Modus Tollens form, and valid. Its major premise is based on a general principle of causation to the effect that every event has a sufficient cause. The generalizations thus obtained are of course, According to Avicenna, not absolute and unconditional, but restricted and hypothetical. To return to the example Ayer discusses, the correct generalization would not be: All swans are whiteÃ¢â ¢, but All swans begotten from white parent swans are whiteÃ¢â ¢, etc.. According to Avicenna, when this condition is not satisfied, the experience can only yield probable judgmentÃ¢â ¢. A similar point can be made in connection with HumeÃ¢â ¢s remark when he writes, The bread which I formerly ate nourished me; that is, a body of such sensible qualities was, at that time, endued with such secret powers. But does it follow that other bread must also nourish me at another time, and that like sensible qualities must always be attended with like secret powers The consequence seems nowise necessary. Avicenna would agree that the consequence is not necessary. As in the case of his own examples, the universal judgment, he would say, will hold true only under certain conditions, and not absolutely. In the case of HumeÃ¢â ¢s specific example Avicenna would say, it is not just a body of such sensible qualities absolutely and without further qualification that would be taken as attended by the power of nourishment, but along with it there are some other conditions that are determined and operative. These conditions may be partially or even wholly unknown to us and neglected, and this explains why experience sometimes errs. As we noted in part 2, Avicenna said that the conclusion (about scammony) will follow if it is restricted to the scammony grown in certain countries, and is of the kind known to us at present. According to him, the generalization fails because something accidental is mistaken for what is essential. This was the same point made by Ayer about what has gone wrong with the generalization All swans are white. Appendix At the end of chap. 4 of his Physics, II, Aristotle proposes to discuss the question what chance and spontaneity areÃ¢â ¢, and asks whether or not they can be reckoned among the division of causes. The following chap. starts by: First then we observe that some things always come to pass in the same way, and others for the most part. It is clearly of neither of these that chance is said to be the cause, nor can the effect of chance be identified with any of the things that come to pass by necessity and always, or for the most part. This and similar passages in these chapters must be what people have taken as expressing the principle, What is true as a matter of coincidence cannot occur always or frequentlyÃ¢â ¢. But a careful examination of these passages will leave no doubt that what Aristotle has intended here is not a principle from which one can infer individual inductive laws. his thesis about language has been turned into a thesis about the world. He continues, however, not only have there been some philosophers who have mentioned chance among the causes, but there is, he reports, a further circumstance that is surprising: people often speak of events that occur by chance. He writes: Many things both come to be and are by chance and spontaneity, and although they know that each of them can be ascribed to some causeÃ ¦nevertheless they speak of some of these things as happening by chance and others not. Elsewhere, but in the same connection, Aristotle mentions as a case of chance the example of a man who, coming by chanceÃ¢â ¢ into the market and finding there a man whom one wanted, but did not expect to meetÃ¢â ¢. In this circumstance the meeting of the man is described as a chance event. Now the surprising circumstance, according to Aristotle, is that while some people believe that the meeting of the man is not due to chance, yet people often speak of that event as happening by chance. Aristotle thus sets out to analyze the circumstances under which an event is said to be happening by chanceÃ¢â ¢. The first characteristic he identifies as required for an event to be described as happening by chanceÃ¢â ¢ is that it should not come to pass by necessity, always or for the most part. Thus he is referring here to a necessary condition under which the expression by chanceÃ¢â ¢ or its equivalents can apply. If the condition does not obtain, the expression is no longer applicable. If the man who went to the market had met the other man there always or frequently, that particular instance of meeting him would not have been characterized as a matter of coincidenceÃ¢â ¢, or as occurring by chanceÃ¢â ¢. Stating these necessary conditions for the application of the term the effect of chanceÃ¢â ¢ seems to be all that Aristotle has in mind when he says, nor can the effect of chanceÃ¢â ¢ be identified with any of the things that come to pass by necessity and always, or for the most partÃ¢â ¢. From this I conclude that AristotleÃ¢â ¢s statement is not to be taken to imply that if the circumstance is not of the type to which the expression the effect of chanceÃ¢â ¢ is applicable, then there is a necessary or causal connection involved in that circumstance. On the contrary, it seems fairly clear that the statement in question describes one of the conditions Aristotle has found necessary for describing an event as happening by chanceÃ¢â ¢. If this is correct then the principle cannot be used as a ground for justification of inductive generalization. There is yet another condition in this theory to be satisfied, if an event is to be described as happening by chanceÃ¢â ¢. It must belong to the class of events, [I]n connexion with which the phrase for the sake of something is applicable. (Events that are for the sake of something include whatever may be done as a result of thought or of nature). Thus, according to Aristotle, where both conditions apply the event is said to be happening by chanceÃ¢â ¢. This means that if the second condition were not satisfied the phrase would not be applicable. That is, it may be that an event is infrequent and rare, and yet not referred to as coming about by chance. From what we have said it is, however, clear that the statement What is true as a matter of coincidence cannot occur always or frequentlyÃ¢â ¢ as it is used by Aristotle is different from that statement as it used by Avicenna. Avicenna wants to employ the statement as a principle underlying our inductive reasoning, and as a ground for establishing the existence of a necessary connection among events that occur always or frequently in a determinate manner. And this is not, as we have observed, the way in which Aristotle uses the principle. When he said due to chanceÃ¢â ¢ could not be said of the events that occur frequently, what he meant was that when any course of events occurs frequently it can no longer be characterized accidentally. Thus, the principle in question concerns not the presence of a necessary connection, but rather the use of the expression by chanceÃ¢â ¢ or accidentally. To use that statement for establishing the existence of a causal connection seems to invol ve a misinterpretation of an Aristotelian thesis that is about language as a thesis about the world. Acknowledgement It is a pleasure to record my thanks to Professor Paul Thom and Professor Frank Jackson of ANU who, commented on an early draft of this paper, and to the University of Isfahan that supported the research. References Al-Farabi, (1985/86). Al-Mantiq inda l-Farabi, edited by R. Al-Ajam, 3 vols. Beirut. Aristotle, (1928) Posterior Analytics, translated by G. R. G. Mure, under the editorship of W. D. Ross, Oxford University Press. Aristotle, (1928) Prior Analytics, translated by A.J. Jenkinson, under the editorship of W.D. Ross, Oxford University Press. Aristotle, (1928) Topics, translated by W. A. Pickard-Cambridge, under the editorship of W. D. Ross, Oxford University Press Aristotle, (1930) Physics, translated by R. P. Hardie and R. K. Gaye, under the editorship of W. D. Ross, Oxford University Press. Avicenna, (1956) Al-Shifa: AI-Mantiq. AI-Burhan(Demonstration), Cairo, edited by A. E. Afifi, Cairo. Avicenna, (1964) Al-Shifa, AI-TabiÃ¢â ¢yyat (Physics), edited by Sa`id Zayed, Cairo. Avicenna, (1971) Al-lsharat wal-Tanbihat, with TusiÃ¢â ¢s Commentary in Margin, edited by S. Dunya, 4 vols., Cairo. Avicenna, (1971) AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s Treatise on Logic, translated by F. Zabeeh, The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff. Avicenna, (1984) Remarks and Admonitions: Part One: Logic, translated by S. C. Inati, Pontifical Institute of Mediaeval Studies, Toronto, Canada. Avicenna, (1985) Al-Najat, edited by M. T. Daneshpazhooh, Tehran University Press, Tehran. Ayer, A. J. (1972) Probability and Evidence, Macmillan. Cohen, L.J. and Hesse, M. (eds.) (1980) Applications of Inductive Logic, Oxford, Gohlman, W. E. (1974) The Life of Ibn Sina, Albany: SUNY Press Claredon Press. Hume, D. (1955) A Treatise of Human Nature, ed. Selby Bigge, L. A. Oxford. Weinberg, J. R. (1965) Abstraction, Relation, and Induction, University of Wisconsin Press, Wisconsine  Avicenna ( Ibn Sina ) lived from 980-1037 AD. For further information on his life, see Gohlman, W. E. (1974). For a detailed discussion of AvicennaÃ¢â ¢s influence upon Mediaeval philosophers, see Weinberg, J. R. 1965, chap. iii.  AL-ajam, R. 1`985/86, Vol. 3 , p. 100.  See Cohen, L.J. Hesse, M. 1980, p. viii.  See also, Avicenna, 1985, p. 5,: Avicenna, 1984, p. 129,: Avicenna, 1964, p. 557.  The translation is made by the author from the Persian original. Also cf F. Zabeeh, 1971, p. 25. Similar remarks can be found in Avicenna, 1984, p. 129.  In al-Shifa, he refers to this deduction simply as deduction but in a later work, al-Isharat, he also adds the adjective concealed (or imperceived), perhaps to distinguish it from enthymeme.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 95, ff. All my translations into Englishare are made from this edition.  It must, however, be said that his last work, Isharat does not support the principle and allows for unrealized possibilities.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 97.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 97.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 96.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 97.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 96.  For a servey of Inductive support for induction see Induction by Max Black, in Encyclopedia of Philosophy , ed. Paul Edwaqrds, 1986.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 96.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 97.  Ayer, 1972, pp. 20-1.  Ibid., p. 21.  Avicenna, 1956, p. 96.  Physics, II, 4, 196b 8-9.  Physics, II, 4, 196a 12-14.  Physics, II, 4, 196a 2-4.  Physics, II, 5, 196b 21-23.